石油化学新聞 2002/1/28 

ニッセイ基礎研究所・百嶋氏に聞く 
   どうする日本の石化過剰設備問題

  「過剰設備問題を解決していくことが、日本の石油化学工業にとって当面の大きな課題だ」(正野寛治三菱化学社長)。
 過剰設備問題がこのところ頻繁に取り沙汰されるようになってきた。輸出の減少に加え、内需の低迷で、石化プラントの稼働率が一頃よりも低下していることが背景にある。今年のエチレン生産は7百万dを下回ると予想する向きも多く、需給ギャップが一段と拡大する可能性が高い。「今年は業界再編の年になる」(山本侑出光石油化学社長)と言われる中で、日本の石化各社は過剰設備問題への答えを出し、将来への明確なビジョンを打ち出していけるのか。かねてから、過剰設備の解消の必要性を強調してきたニッセイ基礎研究所主任研究員の百嶋徹氏に聞いた。

エチレン600万トンで十分  内需見合いの能力が理想
   ここにきて日本の石化の過剰設備問題が大きくクロズアップされています。
百嶋         私は93〜4年頃から過剰設備の解消とコンビナートの再編の必要性を訴えてきました。エチレンプラントがフル操業で推移し、エチレン生産が760万台だった99年に「石化には基本的に過剰設備はない」との意見が出ていましたが、それにはまったく同意できませんでした。
     
ー       それは、なぜでしょうか。
百嶋  理由は日本の石化の収益性の低さにあります。収益構造の国際比較をしてみれば、一目瞭然です。2000年度連結決算での石化部門のROA(総資産利益率、分子の利益はEBITDA)は住友化学工業7.0%、三井化学7.9、三菱化学8.4といずれも10%を下回っており、総合化学の中で最も石化部門のROAが高い旭化成でも12.7%です。日本市場での石化事業に限定すれば、もっと水準は低くなるかもしれません。
 これ対し、欧米勢はBASFが24.9%、ダウ・ケミカルが21.6%というように、収益力に大きな差があります。
 これは過剰設備で市場支配力がないために、汎用品で適正なマージンが得られなかったり、高機能の製品の開発や技術サービスをしっかりと行っても、価絡への転嫁が十分にできていないことを示すものといえましょう。99年や2000年にエチレンプラントがフル稼働だったといっても、供給余力を低収益の輸出に振り向けていたという側面は否定できないのではないでしょうか。私からすれば、収益が悪くなってきたので、ようやく過剰設備問題の議論が出てきたという感じですね。
     
低採算輸出で稼働率を維持
   基礎原料となるエチレンでは大体、どのぐらいの過剰設備があると見ていますか。
百嶋  さきほども触れたように、輸出は低採算であり、稼働を維持するために行われているという傾向が見られます。ある意味で内需に見合わない分は、過剰ともいえるわけです。2000年の内需は約550万トンです。これを前提に、これから90%ぐらいの稼働でも一定の収益があがる体質が構築されるものとすれば、エチレンの能力は年産600万トンで十分です。 経済産業省の調査による2000年末のエチレンプラントの能力は定修実施年べースで730万9千トン、スキップ年べースで805万3干トンです。2001年1月に休止した三菱化学の四日市事業所の分が含まれていますが、それでも内需を550万トンぐらいとすれば、100万トン以上多いことになります。したがって、ミニマム2基のエチレンプラントが過剰という計算が成り立ちます。
     
財務体力が大きなポイントに、求められる早期の対応
   日本の石化の国際競争力については、どう捉えていますか。
百嶋  必ずしも劣位にあるとは思っていません。収益性が低いのは過剰設備があるからで、それがなくなれば、違う様相を呈してくるはずです。日本の石化業界では競争力の強化や不足ポジションの解消といったミクロの論理を背景に増設が横並びで実施されてきました,その結果、過剰設備が増加するという「合成の誤謬」に陥っているといわざるを得ません。このような長期ビジョンを欠く行動から、早く脱却する必要があります。
     
   このままでいくと、需給ギャップはますます拡大していぐ可能性が高いですね。
百嶋  その通りです。内需はGDP並みには伸びていくでしょうが、日本のGDP自体がもはや、大きな成長が期待できません。加えて、輸入品がますます増えていくものと予想されます。輸出も、さらに減少するでしょう。しかも、一部の企業はエチレンプラントの増強に動いていますし、定修年の延長措置で実能力が増える傾向にあります。このままでいくと、需給ギャップはどんどん開いていくことになります。
     
   過剰設備問題はどのように解決されていくと考えていますか。
百嶋

 

 誘導品が弱かったり、儲かっていないコンビナートが苦しい局面に立たされ、撤退を余儀なくされることになるでしょう。比較優位の条件としては、まず石化事業の自己完結力があげられます。高採算の誘導品にオレフィンを自家消費するのが最も効率的であり、低採算の誘導品によって支えられたコンビナートは構造的に問題があります。石化事業の収益変動をカバーする非石化事業の収益寄与や持久戦・リストラに備えた財務体力も重要なポイントになります。とりわけ、財務体力が大きな要素であり、石化事業単独ではなく会社全体の問題として過剰設備への対応が行われていくことになるでしょう 誘導品の大型プラントヘの集約化を進め、エチレンプラントを維持する企業と、限られた誘導品に特化してエチレン能力の大幅削減や撤退を行う企業に分かれていくべきだと思います。強者による営業権買収と事業売却企業による設備廃棄を組み合わせた再編手法も考えられます。
     
押し寄せる第2の波、継続的な投資も重要  
   はたして、そういった取り組みがこれから加速度的に進むのでしょうか
百嶋  そこが問題なんです。最近のポリオレフィンの在庫状況などを見ると、異常ともいえるような高い水準にあります。在庫調整すらできないのに、過剰設備をうまく解消していけるのかを危惧しています。日本の石化工業には、ポリオレフィン関税の大幅引き下げと欧米の巨大企業によるアジア市場への本格進出という「国際競争第二の波」が押し寄せようとしています。できれば、その波が本格的にくるまでに過剰設備問題を解決してもらいたいと思っていたのですが、いまの状況からすると、本格的な波が来てようやく動くことになるという感じが強いですね。
 また、過剰設備問題があるとはいえ、強い企業はそれなりの投資を行っていく必要があります。化学業界では石化部門をキャッシュカウとして維持し、特殊化部門の拡大を図っていく企業が多いわけですが、現状の石化部門がキャッシュ創出事業であっても、大型設備への更新や拡大投資を継続できなければ、キャッシュカウであり続けることはできないでしょう。
 いずれにせよ、日本には世界的に見ても大きな石化の市場があるので、きっちりとした体制にさえなれば、それなりの収益はあげていけるはずです。

(Chemical Week Cover Story Mar 20, 2002)

Petrochemicals
By Sam Cage, Peck Hwee Sim and Robert Westervelt

Petrochemical producers were hoping that the current industry trough would be more bearable than the last,
following a heavy round of consolidation since the mid-1990s. In the U.S., 40% of ethylene capacity is concentrated in the hands of five producers, up from just 25% in 1995. The top-five producers in Europe account for 50% of capacity. The industry posted its worst results in 20 years during 2001, however, dashing those hopes.

This is still in a cyclical business,says Theo Walthie, president/hydrocarbons at Dow Chemical. There will be periods of slow growth or even contraction, and periods of strong growth,Walthie says. Thats what drives the cycles, and I dont see that changing.Petrochemical demand should continue to grow at 4.5%/year over the course of the entire cycle, he says. Producers say consolidation has been necessary just to remain competitive.

Producers were also pounded by unusually high natural gas prices in the U.S. in early 2001. The higher feedstock costs were coupled with overcapacity from an aggressive buildup of capacity, and the recession, which killed demand and pricing. Total U.S. thermoplastics demand declined 3.3% in 2001, to 75 billion lbs, says the American Plastics Council (Arlington, VA), as a weak economy hurt demand. Declining prices also gave buyers a strong incentive to deplete inventory and hold off purchases as long as possible.

Most producers and analysts agree that demand and margins have hit bottom, but they differ on how long they will stay there. Opinions also differ on whether consolidation will iron out volatility in the future.

A lot of consolidation has already taken place in olefins, styrene monomer, and styrenic resins, says Andrew Mackenzie, group v.p./chemicals Americas at BP.
More consolidation may be needed in polyolefins, where quite a few companies are deeply in the red,says Mackenzie. BP and Solvay swapped their respective polypropylene (PP) and engineering plastics business last year, and created separate high-density polyethylene (PE) joint ventures in Europe and the U.S. .

Consolidation in the styrenics industry has been driven by four major players - Atofina Petrochemicals, BASF, Dow Chemical, and Nova Chemicals - and more consolidation can be expected, especially in Europe, says Chris Pappas, senior v.p. and president/styrenics at Nova. Performance in the styrenics industry has been very weak for the past 10 years. Nova mothballed 100 million lbs/year of polystyrene (PS) capacity at Belpre, OH last May and its PS plant at Joliet, IL last February.

But consolidation has not helped at the bottom of this cycle, industry sources say.
Fewer players should mean less volatility, but there are no guarantees,says C.L. Tseng, executive v.p./Formosa Plastics (Livingston, NJ). Major players are still vying for market share under very turbulent conditions and competition is intense.

Buyers are also getting bigger and more powerful, says Rich Pisarcyzk, senior v.p./basic chemicals at ExxonMobil Chemical. Companies simply need greater scale and an improved cost position just to keep pace, Pisarczyk says. This usually bodes well for buyers because cost savings get passed on downstream via producers improved cost position,he says.

Even though larger companies have more financial and operational flexibility to idle capacity, they are often reluctant to do so because they tend to have the lowest-cost production, says Evert Henkes, CEO of Shell Chemicals.
Bigger companies can also be less inclined to behave well in terms of disciplined investment,says Henkes. Bigger players have larger production units, and any decision to idle capacity necessarily means closing a world-scale production plant.The risk is proportionally greater if a large player does behave badly, he says.

Consolidation has been so extensive that no single player, or even group of players, has gained a significant advantage over any others, producers say.
We have not been alone in consolidation,says one major producer. Others have cut costs and gained scale as well.Smaller players may get hurt, however, because they lack scale and ability to cut costs relative to larger players, he says.

Despite the problems, producers see no end to the consolidation cycle.
If you look out over the next five years markets such as polypropylene and polyethylene will continue to consolidate,says Peter Huntsman, president and CEO of Huntsman. Unless youre a multi-billion lbs/year player, it will be very difficult to compete.

Smaller players such as Huntsman must carve out a niche. Our Odessa polyethylene plant is a 200,000-m.t./year gas-phase, and the reactor there can produce specialty products. There will be a niche for smaller players who can differentiate themselves, but, in some products, we may be better off aligning ourselves with larger players.

Consolidation will also be driven by a desire to forward integrate from ethylene, says Huntsman. Companies wont invest money to make PE,he says. Companies will spend the money on a PE plant merely to get rid of ethylene. I dont think youll see anyone building a merchant ethylene glycol (EG) facility. There are times when youll be able to make money in merchant EG markets, but it will only happen about once every 15 years.

North America has regained some competitiveness compared to the rest of the world because natural gas prices have fallen sharply over the past year. Whether that remains depends on how much natural gas prices climb relative to crude oil prices, some observers say. With higher natural gas and naphtha prices expected to arrive with economic recovery, it is likely that imports to the U.S. will increase faster than exports from the Americas region,says Sabic. North American companies will likely replace production facilities with those based in regions with access to cheap feedstocks, which in turn will encourage further consolidation of the European and North American industries, says Sabic.

Nova
s exports should return to 15%-20% of output as the Alberta Advantagereturns, says Pappas. Nova lost its feedstock cost advantage last year due to higher Alberta gas prices relative to benchmark New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas prices. Alberta now has a more than 6 cts/lb feedstock cost advantage over the Gulf Coast ethylene producers and polyolefins chain, says Pappas.

Gulf Coast producers will also face difficulty in competing with the Mideast in Asia, producers say. Mideast producers have no outlet for methane and ethane, and they operate at a significantly lower cost, says Mackenzie. The return to cost parity for ethane-based U.S. petrochemicals, compared to naphtha-based petrochemicals, however, is enough to prevent a major influx of imports from the Mideast, he says.

Volatility of energy prices means that different feedstocks will have the advantage at different times, favoring producers with flexibility of feedstock, says Pisarczyk. ExxonMobil operates flexi-crackers at Beaumont, TX and at its new complex in Singapore.

Formosa also designs its crackers with full swing-feed capabilities, taking up to 70% naphtha, or 70% ethane-propane mix, says Tseng.
This allows us to reduce the impact of cyclical feedstock price swings.

Another problem is that petchem producers are adding ever-bigger plants, which make it difficult for the market to absorb the capacity quickly. Companies are building larger plants, and there is a proportionately greater capacity overhang when they come onstream,says John Marcantonio, consultant at Tecnon OrbiChem (London). Also, consolidation does not necessarily deter investment by new entrants, says Marcantonio. The competitive position of the U.S. will likely be eroded as capacity comes onstream elsewhere, particularly in the Mideast, says Marcantonio. Smaller U.S. players will likely concentrate on domestic markets.

The days of the U.S. as an exporter are limited,says Henkes. Ethane cracking will be more competitive as long as gas prices are below $3/million Btu. But Shell believes that the gas price will be equivalent to naphtha in the long term. This will mean further rationalization as gas crackers will close. Vinyls will be the main exports from the U.S. in the long term because of low-cost electricity to produce chlorine, says Gary Adams, president of CMAI (Houston).

Exports may be declining but the domestic U.S. market is still growing, other producers say.
North America is not a shrinking market,says Dan Smith, CEO of Lyondell Chemical. Petrochemical demand here is growing at 1.25-1.5 times GDP.U.S. petrochemical makers may continue to gradually lose exports, but they still have the largest market to serve from its doorstep. Market share of exports has slipped from 20%-25% 20 years ago, to about 10%. That will continue to shrink,he says. Markets in Asia and Latin America now have enough domestic demand to support a domestic industry, he adds. There are other places that have advantages on feedstock and labor cost and production will shift there.

Many petrochemical players are tightening their belts until the market improves. Producers need to bring themselves to breakeven on a cash basis for the coming year, says Mackenzie. If no sharp recovery occurs, they will have to further cut expenditure,he says. BP recently announced delays in its purified terephthalic project in Europe and is considering capacity rationalization in its European PS business.

Others say they do not plan any changes. Shell says the economic downturn has not forced the company to adjust any of its plans.
We have looked at all of our plans to see how strong they are in the current economic environment,says Henkes. The companys plans were formulated to take account of the downturn so there is unlikely to be a need for major revisions, he says. Adjustments will be made if a worsening economic situation demands them, he adds.

Sabic says it is continuing to expand global capacity, with the longer-term aim of becoming a
significant petrochemical player in all of the major regions of the world.The downturn has not forced the company to adjust any of its current plans, and Sabic says it will make further acquisitions and form new joint ventures and alliances in regions outside the Middle East. Sabic is reportedly interested in bidding for the respective petrochemical businesses of DSM and ENI.

ExxonMobil is focusing on projects that will help increase efficiency and reduce costs of operations rather than add on new capacity, says Pisarczyk. ExxonMobil has started up two major petrochemical complexes, one in the past year, at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia and Singapore, which added a total of 1.6 million m.t./year of ethylene capacity, 1.02 million m.t./year of polyethylene, and 575,000 m.t./year of polypropylene. The company is scheduled to bring on a 120,000-m.t./year expansion at its Baytown, TX cracker in the middle of 2002.
We are focusing on things we can control, such as costs, reliability of operations, feedstock optimization and integration,says Pisarczyk. We dont know when the upturn will come, but were positioning ourselves as well as we can so we can catch the upturn when it does.

The company is planning to expand its cogen capacity of 1,700 megawatts worldwide by 40%-50% over the next three years, says Pisarczyk. The company will continue exploring opportunities to consider operations in places that provide access to competitive feedstocks and scale, says Pisarczyk. ExxonMobil is reviewing plans to build jv crackers with Sinopec in existing refinery complexes at Guangdong and Fujian, China. It is still studying the possibility of building a cracker at Jose, Venezuela, he adds.