日本経済新聞 2008/3/13
天然ガス版OPEC構想 親ロシア国でカルテル
年内にも発足、イラン参加も 米欧揺さぶり狙う
世界最大のガス埋蔵量を持つロシアが、カザフスタンなど旧ソ連の親ロ国と天然ガスの価格や供給網の建設を調整する事実上のカルテルを設立することが明らかになった。イランなどにも参加を要請し、年内にも発足させる。ロシアはこの“地域カルテル”をテコに、将来はカタールなど主要ガス輸出国を加え、石油輸出国機構(OPEC)にならった国際的な天然ガスカルテルの創設につなげる考えだ。
主要ガス輸出国によるカルテル創設はそもそも昨年１月、米国と対立する埋蔵量２位のイランがロシアに提案した経緯があり、ロシアの呼びかけに応じる公算が大きい。ロシア、カザフ、ウズベキスタンにイランまでを加えたガス埋蔵量は世界全体の４割超。ロシアにはガス輸出で影響力を強めて欧州の安全保障問題などで対立する米欧への揺さぶりに利用する狙いもある。
旧ソ連６カ国(ロシア、カザフ、ウズベク、ベラルーシ、タジキスタン、キルギス)が加盟するユーラシア経済共同体が４月にロシアで開く会議で構想を発表する。既にカザフのほか欧州向けガス通過国であるベラルーシが参加に合意した。カルテル設立は価格押し上げ要因となるが、ガス取引は現時点では石油価格を基に算出しており、影響は限定的との見方が多い。
EurAsECはロシア、ベラルーシ、カザフスタン、キルギス、タジキスタンの5カ国が2000年に結成に合意、01年に正式発足した。アルメニアやモルドバ、ウクライナがオブザーバーとなり、06年にはウズベキスタンも正式加盟した。加盟国間の関税やヒトやモノの移動の管理を統一して地域の通商貿易運輸を促進するのが狙い。
独立国家共同体（ＣＩＳ）関税同盟を発展、改組しユーラシア経済共同体を発足させることで合意した。
AESはカザフスタンのナザルバエフ大統領が提唱した構想に沿ったものであり、将来的に欧州連合（EU）のような機構を目指している。
まず欧州向け支配 主要輸出国影響力拡大
旧ソ連諸国やイランを取り込む形の天然ガス版「地域カルテル」でまず欧州向けガス輸出の支配を固め、カタールなど世
界の主要ガス輸出国への影響力も強めていくーー。ロシアが仕掛ける戦略だ。
ロシアの独占ガス会社ガスプロムは１１日、旧ソ連のガス生産国であるカザフスタン、ウズベキスタン、トルクメニスタンの国営ガス会社の幹部を集め、２００９年から輸出価格を大幅に引き上げることで合意した。
ロシアは現在、各国からガスを安値で調達し、自国パイプラインで欧州向けに輸出している。各国との価格調整はロシアにとってマイナスとなる面もあるが、生産国の囲い込みを優先した。旧ソ連圏のカルテル構想を主導する与党統一ロシアのヤーゼフ議員は日本経済新闇に「イランとアゼルバイジャンに参加を要請する」と言明する。ガス資源が豊富な両国にロシアを迂回するガス輸送網の構築を模索する欧州連合(EU)が急接近していることを念頭に置いたものだ。
天然ガス埋蔵量のシェア
(2006年宋、BPエネルギー統計)
ロシア 26.3% 旧ソ連5カ国 2.7% 旧ソ連6カ国 29.0% イラン 15.5% 旧ソ連＋イラン 44.5% カタール 14.0% サウジアラビア 3.9% UAE 3.3% その他 34.3%
３大ガス国が協力合意 「ガス版ＯＰＥＣ」へ布石
天然ガス埋蔵量が世界１位のロシアと２位のイラン、３位のカタールが２１日、ガス市場のビジネスで緊密に協力していくことで合意 した。３カ国の埋蔵量は世界の６割近くを占め、石油輸出国機構（ＯＰＥＣ）のように生産量や価格を調整する「ガス版ＯＰＥＣ」の創設に向けた動きとみられ る。ガス輸入に頼る西欧などを中心に、国際的な懸念が再び強まる可能性がある。
インタファクス通信などによると、ロシアの政府系天然ガス企業「ガスプロム」のミレル社長が２１日、テヘランでイランのノザリ石油相、カタールの アブドラ・エネルギー産業相と会談。「ガス・ビッグ３」ともいえる３カ国は今後、年に３〜４回、定期的に会い、お互いの利益にかかわる最重要問題について 協議することで合意した。
ノザリ石油相は会談後、「大きな決断が下された。３カ国はガス輸出国の組織を設立することに関心があり、それに携わっていくだろう」と強調。ＯＰＥＣを念頭に、ガス輸出価格の設定などを想定していることを示唆した。
来月１８日にはモスクワでガス輸出国フォーラムが開かれ、十数カ国のエネルギー相らが参加する予定。同フォーラムは情報交換を主眼に０１年に結成されたものだが、新組織の設立についても議題に上がるとみられている。
「ガス版ＯＰＥＣ」の創設を巡っては、ロシアやアルジェリアに天然ガスの約３分の１を頼る西欧諸国を始め米国などが警戒している。反米のイランが 積極的な一方、親米のカタールはカルテルには反対と言われてきた。昨年、「資源外交」を展開するロシアのプーチン大統領（当時）が関心を示したことで欧米 の懸念が強まったが、「ガス版ＯＰＥＣ」の機能については３カ国で認識の違いが残っている可能性もある。
2008/10/21 Bloomberg
Russia, Iran and Qatar, holders of more than half of the world's natural gas, agreed to form a ``gas troika'' for joint exploration and production, OAO Gazprom said.
``We have agreed to create a technical committee, and one of its missions will be to review projects that can be implemented in a trilateral way,'' Alexei Miller, chief executive officer of Russian gas exporter Gazprom, told reporters in Tehran today after talks with Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari and Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.
The U.S. and Europe have warned against the Iran-led initiative to create a ``gas OPEC' aimed at controlling supplies and prices. Russia's government has dismissed those concerns, saying closer cooperation with other gas producers in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum are meant to ensure present and future supplies. This year's annual forum, which has been delayed repeatedly, is scheduled to take place in Moscow on Nov. 17.
``Big decisions were made today,'' Nozari said. ``There is a consensus to create this organization, and to prepare its constitution for the next meeting of ministers.''
Gas producers need to work together because of the ``huge'' costs of developing new fields and building pipelines, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko told German business leaders this month. Fears of a ``gas OPEC'' are overblown because there's already a ``quasi-cartel of consumers'' in developed economies, he said Oct. 2. Russia supplies a quarter of Europe's gas.
Russia, the biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, is also seeking closer cooperation with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls 40 percent of global crude production. OPEC Secretary General Abdulla el-Badri is scheduled to arrive in Moscow later today for talks with Shmatko and other government officials.
Russia holds 25.2 percent of the world's proved natural gas reserves, according to BP's Annual Statistical Review of World Energy. Iran has 15.7 percent and Qatar 14.4 percent.
2008/10/22 AP
Russia, Iran and Qatar discuss forming gas cartel
Russia, Iran and Qatar made the first serious moves Tuesday toward forming an OPEC-style cartel on natural gas, raising concerns that Moscow could boost its influence over energy markets spanning from Europe to South Asia.
Such an alliance would have little direct impact on the United States, which imports virtually no natural gas from Russia or the other nations.
But Washington and Western allies worry that closer strategic ties between Russia and Iran could hinder efforts to isolate Tehran over its nuclear ambitions. In addition, the United States opposes a proposed Iranian gas pipeline to Pakistan and India, key allies.
In Europe - which counts on Russia for nearly half of its natural gas imports - any cartel controlled by Moscow poses a threat to supply and pricing.
Russia, which most recently came into confrontation with the West over its five-day war with Georgia in August, has been accused of using its hold on energy supplies to bully its neighbors, particularly Ukraine.
Moscow cut natural gas exports to the former Soviet republic over a price dispute during the dead of winter in 2006 - a cutoff that caused disruptions to European nations further down the pipeline.
The 27-nation European Union expressed strong opposition to any natural gas cartel Tuesday, with an EU spokesman, Ferran Tarradellas Espuny, saying: "The European Commission feels that energy supplies have to be sold in a free market."
Together Russia, Qatar and Iran account for nearly a third of world natural gas exports - the vast majority supplied by Russia - according to U.S. government statistics. The three hold some 60 percent of world gas reserves, according to Russia's state-controlled energy company Gazprom.
The United States - the world's largest consumer of oil and gas - produces most of its natural gas needs at home, importing only from Canada and Mexico.
Russia is also a major oil producer, though not an OPEC member. For its part, Iran, in its standoff with world powers over its nuclear program, has threatened to choke off oil shipments through the Persian Gulf if it is attacked.
A gas cartel could extend both countries' reach in energy and politics, particularly if oil prices bounce back to the highs seen earlier this year, prompting renewed interest in cleaner-burning natural gas and other alternative fuels.
Tuesday's gathering in Tehran appeared to be the most significant step toward the formation of such a group since Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, first raised the idea in January 2007.
"Big decisions were made," said Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari. His Qatari counterpart, Abdulla Bin Hamad al-Attiya, said at least two more meetings were needed to finalize an accord, according to the Iranian Oil Ministry's Web site. No timeframe was given.
Calling the grouping the "big gas troika," the chief executive of Russia's state-controlled energy company Gazprom, Alexei Miller, said it would meet three or four times a year.
"We are consolidating the largest gas reserves in the world, the general strategic interests and - what is very important - the high potential for cooperation on three-party projects," Miller said.
Already, Russia has built Iran's first nuclear reactor, which Iranian officials say could begin operating later this year. The West fears Iran's nuclear program could lead to development of atomic weapons; Iran insists it is only for peaceful energy production.
Experts say a natural gas cartel would not have the same influence on prices as OPEC has on oil since natural gas is not subject to the same severe fluctuations.
"There's always some worry when these guys get together that they'll try to replicate OPEC, but they know that's not doable," said Robert Ebel, senior adviser to the Energy and National Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "They can try to get more control over gas, but it's not OPEC."
That's because gas, unlike oil, is traded on much longer-term contracts, of as much as 25 years.
"Gas is a regional commodity and oil is an international commodity," Ebel said. "If you want to buy a tanker of crude, you can buy one at today's prices. When you want to build a natural gas pipeline, you have to have two things: enough gas to justify building a pipeline that will operate for 25 years, and ... customers that will agree to buy that gas at a range of prices for 25 years."
Still, a natural gas cartel could wield some influence on world prices, particularly in Europe and Asia, said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.
"To try to maneuver the supply ... makes perfect sense," he said. "Just because it doesn't have the clout of oil, it's still in their best interest to deliver natural gas where it needs to go and manage supply in order to help manage the price."
Liquefied natural gas - a rapidly growing segment of the market - could be traded as a commodity similar to oil at some point in the future, and the move by Russia, Iran and Qatar appears to anticipate that, said Konstantin Batunin, an analyst with Moscow's Alfa Bank.
Gazprom, the Russian state energy company, is looking to make the U.S. one of its prime markets for liquefied natural gas, and sent senior executives to Alaska last week to discuss energy projects.
Associated Press writers Charles Sheehan in New York, Mike Eckel and Jim Heintz in Moscow, Adam Schreck in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Constant Brand in Brussels, Belgium, contributed to this report.
