東亜日報（韓国）　2003/6/4

北朝鮮経済、４年連続プラス成長　韓銀発表 　　　　　　　発表

　北朝鮮経済が韓国の経済支援などに支えられて昨年４年連続のブラス成長となった。
　しかし、北朝鮮の産業構造は農林漁業の割合が３０％を占めるなど、韓国の６０年代末水準に止まっているものと調査された。
　
　中央銀行の韓国銀行（韓銀）は４日、「２００２年北朝鮮の経済成長率の推定結果」報告書を通じ、北朝鮮経済が農林漁業と建設業の好調などで前年比１．２％成長、９９年以降４年連続のプラス成長だと明らかにした。
　
　産業別では、農林漁業が良好な気象環境と韓国の肥料支援などで前年比４．２％成長しており、建設業も住居用ビル建設の増加で１０．４％成長した。
　しかし、鉱業は電力不足と設備の老朽化で３．８％減少し、製造業も重化学工業生産の不振で２．０％低下した。
　北朝鮮の経済規模（名目国民所得・ＧＮＩ）は２２４億ドルで韓国の２８分の１、一人あたりの国民所得は７６２ドルで韓国の１３．１分の１水準であることが分かった。
　韓国と北朝鮮の貿易規模は６億４０００万ドルで、前年比５９．３％増加しており、北朝鮮の全体貿易規模のうち２８％を占めた。韓国の対北朝鮮搬出は、対北朝鮮食糧借款、鉄道と道路の連結関連の資材や装備の提供などで、６３．２％増加した。対北朝鮮輸出は１３．１％増加したのに対して、輸入は５．９％減り、対外貿易規模は前年比０．４％減となった。輸入減は国際関係の悪化で国際社会の無償支援が減ったためだとみられる。
　韓銀は、北朝鮮の経済管理改善措置（０２年７月）が慢性的な物資不足と核開発問題による対外経済環境の悪化で、産業全般の生産増大につながっていないと分析した。ただ、北朝鮮の改善措置は住民の労働意欲を高め、労働集約的な軽工業と商業流通部門の活性化に貢献したものと韓銀は評価した。

2003/6/4　The Bank of Korea 　　　http://www.bok.or.kr/　　　

Gross Domestic Product of North Korea in 2002

North Korea's real annual GDP growth stood at 1.2% in 2002, lower than the increase of 3.7% in 2001, but marking a continuation of positive growth for four years in a row. Growth was mainly attributable to increased production in agriculture, forestry & fisheries and construction.

North Korea has put in place 'Economic Management Improvement Measures'* to turn around the economy from the crisis in 2002. The measures seemed not to bring about expanding production throughout the economy as a whole, because of the chronic lack of resources and reduced support from international economic cooperation since the North's nuclear development program reemerged as an issue. However, the measures are considered to have contributed to vitalization of production in light industry and commercial transactions, by raising morale among workers.

North Korea's GDP Growth Rates　　　　　　Unit: % real change
'90	'91	'92	'93	'94	'95	'96	'97	'98	'99	'00	'01	'02
-3.7	-3.5	-6.0	-4.2	-2.1	-4.1	-3.6	-6.3	-1.1	6.2	1.3	3.7	1.2
(9.0)	(9.2)	(5.4)	(5.5)	(8.3)	(8.9)	(6.8)	(5.0)	(-6.7)	(10.9)	(9.3)	(3.1)	(6.3)

Note: Figures in parentheses represent South Korea's GDP growth rates.

Looking at North Korea's GDP growth by industry, growth in agriculture, forestry & fisheries marked a 4.2% increase. Cultivation, which represents a large share of North Korea's economy, increased 4.3%, owing to favorable weather conditions, foreign supplies of fertilizer and farmers' increasing will to produce induced by the raising of the Government's purchase price for rice. Production in fisheries rose largely due to increased inland fish-farming.

Production in mining decreased 3.8%, compared with a 4.8% increase in 2001, because of difficulties in energy supply and worn-out equipment.

Production in manufacturing in 2002 decreased 2.0%, as against a 3.5% increase in 2001. In the light industries, there was a 2.7% production increase, owing to the efforts to produce a greater amount of consumer goods. In the heavy industries, however, difficulties in the supply of energy and raw materials led to decreased production.

Electricity, gas & water production decreased 3.8%, compared with a 3.6% increase in 2001, primarily due to decreased steam power generation caused by declined coal production and worn-out electrical production facilities.

Construction increased 10.4%, compared with a 7.0% increase in 2001, led by the expansion of housing construction.

Production in services fell 0.2%, similarly to a 0.3% decrease in 2001, due to the 1.5% reduction in government services. Other services increased, however, owing to the revitalization of commercial transactions following the implementation of 'Economic Management Improvement Measures'.

North Korea's GDP Growth Rates by Industry　　　　　　　Unit: % real change
	North Korea			：	South Korea
	'00	'01	'02		'01	'02
Agriculture, Forestry & fisheries	-1.9	6.8	4.2		1.9	-4.1
Mining & Manufacturing	2.2	3.9	-2.5		2.1	6.3
Mining	5.8	4.8	-3.8		0.6	3.9
Manufacturing	0.9	3.5	-2.0		2.1	6.3
(Light industry)	6.2	2.3	2.7		-2.4	1.9
(Heavy industry)	-1.5	4.1	-4.2		3.0	7.2
Electricity, Gas & water	3.0	3.6	-3.8		5.1	13.2
Construction	13.6	7.0	10.4		5.6	3.2
Services	1.2	-0.3	-0.2		3.9	7.0
(government)	0.5	-0.4	-1.5		2.2	5.4
(others)	2.5	-0.1	2.4		4.8	7.7
GDP growth rate	1.3	3.7	1.2		3.1	6.3

Looking at North Korea's industrial structure in 2002, there was a rise in the share in GDP of construction, which led the growth in North Korea's economy, but the shares of mining & manufacturing, electricity, gas & water and services all decreased.

The shares of agriculture, forestry & fisheries, of mining, and of government services in the North Korean economy were all higher than those of their counterparts in the South Korean economy. Meanwhile, the shares of manufacturing and other services were lower than those in South Korea.

North Korea's Industrial Structure 　　　　　　　Unit: nominal basis, %
	North Korea			：	South Korea
	'00	'01	'02		'01	'02
Agriculture, Forestry & fisheries	30.4	30.4	30.2		4.3	4.0
Mining & Manufacturing	25.4	26.0	25.8		30.8	29.6
Mining	7.7	8.0	7.8		0.3	0.3
Manufacturing	17.7	18.1	18.0		30.5	29.2
(Light industry)	6.5	6.7	7.0		7.1	6.9
(Heavy industry)	11.2	11.4	11.0		23.4	22.3
Electricity, Gas & water	4.8	4.8	4.4		2.8	2.9
Construction	6.9	7.0	8.0		8.3	8.5
Services	32.5	31.8	31.6		53.7	55.1
(government)	22.6	22.2	22.0		10.3	10.5
(others)	9.8	9.7	9.6		43.4	44.6
GDP	100.0	100.0	100.0		100.0	100.0

North Korea's economic scale (nominal GNI) during 2002 registered 21,331 billion South Korean won, one twenty-eighth that of South Korea, while its per capita GNI stood at 954 thousand South Korean won, approximately one thirteenth that of South Korea.

Economic Scale and Per Capita GNI in South and North Korea

		North Korea (A)			South Korea (B)			B/A(times)
		'01	'02		'01	'02	：	'01	'02
Nominal GNI 　　(w　billion)		20,287.0	21,330.7		550,014.4	596,881.2		27.1	28.0
Per capita GNI (w　thousand)		912	954		11,618	12,529		12.7	13.1

North Korea's trade volume (goods-based) during 2002 amounted to 2,260 million dollars, a one hundred and thirty-ninth that of South Korea.

Whereas North Korea's exports increased 13.1%, its imports decreased 5.9% due to the decline in foreign transfers resulting from the deterioration of the country's international relationships. The overall volume of trade saw a 0.4 % decrease.

Trade Volume in South and North Korea

		North Korea (A)			South Korea (B)			B/A(times)
		'01	'02		'01	'02	：	'01	'02
Trade Volume ($ 100 million)		22.7	22.6		2,915.4	3,146.0		128.4	139.2
Exports		6.5	7.3		1,504.4	1,624.7		231.4	222.6
Imports		16.2	15.3		1,411.0	1,521.3		87.1	99.4

Meanwhile, the volume of bilateral trade between South and North Korea in 2002 stood at 641.7 million dollars, representing a 59.3% increase, as compared with a 5.2% decrease in 2001.

South-to-North trade increased 63.2%. Transactional trade increased and non-transactional trade also increased owing to increased food loans and the South's support for rail and road construction equipment to North Korea, which more than offset the decrease in KEDO's heavy oil support. North-to-South trade increased by 54.2%, due to increased trade of subcontracted goods and commercial transactions of agriculture, forestry & fisheries products.

Volume of Bilateral Trade between South and North Korea　　　　Unit: $ million, %

		'99	'00	'01(A)	'02(B)	(B-A)	Rate of increase(B/A)
South-to-North		211.8	272.8	226.8	370.2	143.4	63.2
North-to-South		121.6	152.4	176.2	271.6	95.4	54.2
Total		333.4	425.2	403.0	641.7	238.8	59.3

　

Major Economic Indicators in South and North Korea in 2002

	Unit	North Korea(A)	South Korea(B)	B/A(times)
1. Population	Thousand persons	22,369	47,640	2.1
2. GDP growth rate	%	1.2	6.3	-
3. Nominal GNI	W　billion	21,330.7	596,881.2	28.0
4. Per Capita GNI	W　thousand (US $)	954 (762)	12,529 (10,013)	13.1
5. External economy 　　　Trade total 　　　　(Exports) 　　　　(Imports) 　　　Exchange rate 　　　Foreign debt 　　(foreign debt/nominal GNI)	US$100mil. 　　〃 　　〃 W/US$ US$100mil. %	22.6 7.3 15.3 2.21(Jan-June) 153(July-Dec) N.A. N.A.	3,146.0 1,624.7 1,521.3 1,251.24 1,310.0 27.5	139.2 222.6 99.4 N.A.
6. Budget volume	US$100mil.	N.A	876.2
7. Energy industry 　　Coal production 　　Capacity of power generation 　　Volume of actual power generation 　　Crude oil imports	10,000 tons 10,000kW 100 million kWh 10,000 tons	2,190 777 190.4 59.7	332 5,380 3,065 10,791	0.2 6.9 16.1 180.8
8. Agricultural & fishery goods production 　　Grains 　　　(Rice ) 　　Fishery products	10,000 tons 　　〃　　　　 　　〃	413.0 173.0 80.5	559.6 492.7 247.8	1.4 2.8 3.1
9. Mining goods production 　　Iron ore 　　Nonferrous metals	10,000 tons 　　〃	407.8 8.7	156.8 132.3	0.38 15.2
10. Manufacturing goods production 　　Automobiles 　　Steel 　　Cement 　　Fertilizer 　　Synthetic fiber	10000vehicles 10,000 tons 　　〃　　　　 　　〃　　　　 　　〃	0.48 103.8 532.0 50.3 2.6	314.7 4,539.0 5,551.4 330.1 230.2	655.6 43.7 10.4 6.6 88.5
11. Infrastructure 　　Length of railroads 　　Length of roads 　　Capacity of harbor loading and unloading 　　Shipping tonnage	Km Km 10,000 tons 10,000 tons	5,235 24,449 3,550 81.0	3,129 96,037 48,651 763.8	0.6 3.9 13.7 9.4